Hi,
For as long as humans have existed, and probably long before, we’ve looked to nature for signs of what’s ahead. Those signals, which are hardwired into our planet’s ecology, are starting to fray.
January was the warmest January in history. So far, 2020 is on track to be one of the warmest years in history. In eastern North America, northern Europe, Russia, the Korean peninsula, and Japan, this year’s early warmth has been especially off-the-charts, and there are emerging signs that flowers, trees, and animals are already waking to an extremely early spring.
An unusually early spring – the earliest ever recorded for parts of the southeastern United States – fits the predictions of what we expect to see in a warming climate. In the US states of Virginia and Tennessee, this year’s first tree leaves have arrived between 18 and 24 days earlier than normal. On Twitter, people were sharing pictures of daffodils beginning to sprout as far north as New York. It’s not even Valentine’s Day yet.
Last week, the Japan Weather Association published its first forecast of this year’s cherry blossoms, which are expected to arrive several days early due to warm weather. For more than 1,000 years, botanists have been keeping track of the date of the cherry blossoms’ arrival in Kyoto, Japan, which has shifted forward by about 10 days over the past 100 years. In the autumn of 2018, a few of the blossoms arrived six months early, a freak occurrence that scientists blamed on a series of typhoons that had defoliated trees, which prevented the release of a necessary hormone to prepare the trees for winter.
For northern countries, which are warming at a rate more than twice the global average, this effect is most profound. In unique places like the Tibetan Plateau, where some plants and animals require an accumulation of enough cold days to properly move through their life cycles, spring is actually arriving later due to mid-winter warm spells that are now altering the rhythm of millions of years of evolution.
If you’re in the US, you can help scientists document these changes by joining the Nature’s Notebook project, an initiative by the National Phenology Network. If you’re outside the US, search for “phenology citizen science” to join a project near you.
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